Memphis survival atlas
Shelby County, Tennessee
Memphis’s biggest natural hazards are earthquakes, inland flooding and tornadoes. In FEMA’s National Risk Index they make up 79% of the natural-hazard risk for Shelby County, home to all of Memphis’s 609,647 residents. FEMA rates the county’s overall risk Relatively High. Here is what to do for each, step by step.
- People
- 609,647 Census estimate, July 1, 2025. No. 29 in the U.S.
- County
- Shelby County All of Memphis’s residents. FEMA rates counties, not cities.
- Overall risk
- Relatively High Score 99.36 of 100. No. 13 of the 30 largest U.S. cities.
- Expected loss
- $555 million A year, from all 18 natural hazards (FEMA estimate).
- Top 3 hazards
- 79% of the county’s risk comes from these three: Earthquake · Inland flooding · Tornado.
What to do for Memphis’s top hazards
The one rule to remember, then the first steps, word for word from our guides. Each guide lists its sources.
Earthquake
FEMA score 99.52: higher than 99.5% of U.S. counties. Expected loss $215 million a year.
- Drop to your hands and knees.
- Cover your head and neck, under a sturdy table if one is close.
- Hold on until the shaking stops. Don't run outside or stand in a doorway.
Inland flooding
FEMA score 98.66: higher than 98.6% of U.S. counties. Expected loss $154 million a year.
- Get to high ground now.
- Never walk, swim or drive into floodwater. 6 inches of moving water can knock you down; 12 inches carries away most cars.
- Car stalls in rising water: get out to higher ground if you safely can. Trapped in fast water: stay inside; if water rises inside, get on the roof.
Tornado
FEMA score 99.77: higher than 99.7% of U.S. counties. Expected loss $70.1 million a year.
- Go to the lowest floor: a small interior room away from windows.
- Cover your head and neck.
- In a mobile home or a car: get to a sturdy building.
All 18 natural hazards in Memphis, ranked
Ranked by each hazard’s share of Shelby County’s risk in FEMA’s National Risk Index. The score compares the county with every other U.S. county for that one hazard.
| # | Hazard | Share of risk | FEMA rating | Score | Expected loss a year | The rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Earthquake | 39% | Relatively High | 99.52 | $215 million | Drop. Cover. Hold on. |
| 2 | Inland flooding | 28% | Relatively High | 98.66 | $154 million | Turn around, don't drown. |
| 3 | Tornado | 13% | Very High | 99.77 | $70.1 million | Lowest floor, interior room, cover your head. |
| 4 | Cold wave | 11% | Very High | 99.77 | $62.2 million | One warm room. Never heat with an oven or a grill. |
| 5 | Heat wave | 8.8% | Relatively High | 99.55 | $48.6 million | Get somewhere cool. Check on anyone who lives alone. |
| 6 | Lightning | 0.3% | Relatively High | 96.18 | $1.7 million | When thunder roars, go indoors. |
| 7 | Strong wind | 0.3% | Relatively High | 87.69 | $1.4 million | Shelter in an interior room, away from windows. |
| 8 | Ice storm | 0.1% | Relatively High | 91.23 | $818,000 | Stay off the roads. One warm room. |
| 9 | Hurricane | <0.1% | Relatively Low | 67.12 | $350,000 | Know your evacuation zone. Told to go? Go early. |
| 10 | Winter weather | <0.1% | Relatively High | 88.66 | $290,000 | Stay in your shelter, or stay with your car. |
| 11 | Wildfire | <0.1% | Relatively Low | 71.05 | $145,000 | Leave early. Know two ways out. |
| 12 | Landslide | <0.1% | Relatively Moderate | 92.55 | $63,000 | Follow local alerts. Leave when officials say so. |
| 13 | Drought | <0.1% | Relatively Low | 36.99 | $39,000 | Store water now: 1 gallon per person per day. |
| 14 | Hail | <0.1% | Very Low | 12.81 | $33,000 | Large hail coming? Get inside a sturdy building and away from the windows. |
| – | Avalanche | – | Not applicable | – | – | Check your local avalanche center before backcountry travel. |
| – | Coastal flooding | – | Not applicable | – | – | Run from the water. Hide from the wind. |
| – | Tsunami | – | Not applicable | – | – | Strong or long shaking near the sea: go high now. |
| – | Volcanic activity | – | Not applicable | – | – | Evacuate early. In ashfall, stay in and wear an N95. |
Source // FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), county 47157. Rules: SOS.city survival guides.
How to read these numbers
- Share of risk. For each hazard, FEMA estimates the loss each year to buildings, people and farms, then adjusts it for social vulnerability and community resilience. The county’s overall risk is the sum of all 18, so the share shows how much of it each hazard carries.
- Score. A percentile from 0 to 100. A score of 99.5 means the county’s risk for that hazard is higher than 99.5% of U.S. counties.
- Rating. FEMA sorts counties into five groups, from Very Low to Very High.
- Big places rank high. Expected losses grow with the number of people and buildings exposed, so large urban counties rank high on many hazards. A high rating means plan for it, not that it will happen this year.
- County, not street. These ratings cover the whole county. For flood risk at your address, look it up on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center.
- Shelby County is rated Relatively High for social vulnerability and Relatively Moderate for community resilience. Both feed into its overall rating.
Questions people ask
What natural disasters is Memphis most at risk for?
Memphis’s biggest natural hazards are earthquakes, inland flooding and tornadoes. In FEMA’s National Risk Index they make up 79% of the natural-hazard risk for Shelby County, home to all of Memphis’s 609,647 residents. FEMA rates the county’s overall risk Relatively High.
How does FEMA rate Memphis’s overall disaster risk?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the overall risk of Shelby County Relatively High, with a score of 99.36 out of 100. The score is a percentile: Shelby County’s overall risk is higher than 99.3% of U.S. counties. Expected losses from natural hazards there average $555 million a year.
What should I do first to get ready in Memphis?
Write down your top three: earthquakes, inland flooding and tornadoes. Turn on Emergency Alerts on every phone and sign up for your county’s alerts. Store water: 1 gallon per person per day for at least 3 days, 2 weeks if you can.
Sources
Every number on this page comes from these public datasets. We check them when we review the page.
- FEMA: National Risk Index data, county table (v1.20, December 2025)
- FEMA: National Risk Index frequently asked questions (December 2025)
- FEMA: National Risk Index for Natural Hazards
- U.S. Census Bureau: City and town population totals, 2020–2025 (Vintage 2025)
- Steps: What to do during an earthquake (SOS.city guide; its sources are listed on the page)
- Steps: What to do in a flood or flash flood (SOS.city guide; its sources are listed on the page)
- Steps: What to do in a tornado warning (SOS.city guide; its sources are listed on the page)
General safety information, not medical advice. In an emergency, call 911 and follow local officials.
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